Analysis and forecasting drought characterisation with using Markov chain model

Drought is one of the inseparable elements climate fluctuation that causes a lot damages every year. Considering effects drought on different parts environment, agriculture, natural resources, wildlife, etc., forecast can be useful for managing crisis and reducing its damages. In this study, monthly was calculated based standard precipitation index (SPI) in several stations south Iran during years 1980–2020.Then, using Markov chain, forecasted 2020 to 2040. According results, most have normal, moderate severe conditions. The transition probability matrix showed all stations, passing from certain state same wet dry high. But low. Also, predictive results were measured at with levels accuracy. addition, highest 2020–2040 related classes, level studied area, class seven, 13.4, 26.81, 27,74, 37.11, 4.76, 2.88, 0.70% predicted months will happen respectively.